Publicado na Revista de Ciência Política, o artigo Policy Windows for Foreign Policy Shifts in Latin American and Caribbean States – Ventanas de oportunidad para el cambio de política exterior en Latinoamérica y el Caribe busca identificar as condições domésticas e internacionais comuns que afetam o reordenamento da política externa. Para isso, é feita uma análise histórica dos reordenamentos na política externa da América Latina e do Caribe, entre os anos de 1945 e 2008, mostrando os caminhos causais que explicam esse fenômeno.
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Why do leaders choose to drastically alter their state’s international behavior? This
article aims to identify common domestic and international conditions that led to a
foreign policy shift (FPS). Given the difficulty associated with defining and measuring
an FPS, this study advances a replicable and theoretically informed definition
to guide case selection. This avoids both the type of selection bias evident in many
previous qualitative analyses and the use of measurements that are not closely related
to the concept as in preceding quantitative research designs. The subsequent
historical analysis of FPSs in Latin America and the Caribbean between 1945 and
2008 identifies two causal paths that led to FPS. By one account, growing discontent
with longstanding dictatorships led to political polarization and subsequent succession
crises, including civil wars and/or international military intervention, from
which new regimes/leaders emerged. By another, international isolation worsened
economic conditions, causing leaders to implement administrative reforms to alter
their foreign policy by conceding to pressures from major powers.